With the prospects for the removal of sanctions against Iran already looming, speculations are already rising that the country will need a much larger aviation fleet to better address what is seen to be a wider flight demand in the near future.
Airways News website reported in an article that experts believe Iran will order 450 new airplanes over the next five years.
It added that 400 of the new planes will be for mainline services, adding that 150 of them will be used for widebody services. The remaining 50 will be used for regional purposes and will be mostly turboprops.
Airways News added that demand for international flights that would require wide body aircraft will specifically rise.
“The deal opens up an entirely new long haul market, with VFR and even business driven traffic to the US,” the aviation news site added.
“There are roughly 700,000 Iranian-Americans [in the US], and Los Angeles (where the largest Iranian expat community in the US lives), New York, Washington D.C., and Houston could all support service to Tehran over the medium to long run.”
Airways News further emphasized that the demand for air trips from Europe and China to Iran will also rise as the country is expected to become a major tourism destination for both regions once the sanctions are lifted.
“[Iran’s] economic growth will push up domestic and regional traffic, particularly amongst tier 2 and tier 3 cities,” the website further added.
“And if the price of oil swings back towards historical norms, then all of these figures will likely have to be pushed up by 20-25%.”
Airways News quoted speculations that Iranian airlines are expected to proceed with revamping their ageing fleet of planes after the removal of the sanctions which is expected to happen in January.
“As far as the new orders go, the airlines will certainly order new generation aircraft like the Boeing 737 MAX, Airbus A320neo, Airbus A350, and Boeing 787. But given that these aircraft don’t have many delivery slots left, you can also expect the carriers to order present generation aircraft like the Boeing 737, Airbus A330, and Boeing 777-300ER, helping fill Airbus/Boeing’s production gaps in the process,” it said.
“And there’s always the outside chance that they throw Boeing a bone and buy some 747-8is…. Even if the economics of the 747-8i are subpar, the symbolism of the Iranians ordering Boeing’s biggest jet might be too big to pass up.”